2023 September Florida Real Estate Economic Update
Market Status: Stalemate
The residential real estate market in 2023 was expected to look more like 2018–2019, with supply and demand finding more of a balance. Balance, however, seems more like a stalemate so far, with buyers and sellers both having reasons to hold back from transacting this year.
The vast majority of homeowners with mortgages that originated or refinanced in 2020–2022 have interest rates that are likely 5% or lower, making the decision to sell difficult, particularly if sellers then need to finance their next home at today’s rates. Buyers are facing a double whammy—rates are nearly double what they were 18 months ago, and prices on the whole have yet to stay down from the peak set a year ago.
When interest rates were lower, higher sticker prices for homes mattered less as the monthly payment stayed low. Now, that is gone. The result: supply and demand have both slowed. Closed sales of existing homes are off from pandemic highs and are settling in slightly lower than trends set in 2019.
However, life happens, and it affects residential real estate. People need to move for a variety of reasons, and the headline issues facing the industry don’t affect everyone. Dollar volume so far in 2023 is above 2019–2020 levels, thanks to higher median sales prices.
The lack of inventory on the supply side will keep prices high, as buyers still have less housing options to choose from. Affordability remains an issue for all buyers, but particularly first-timers who don’t have the advantage of using a current home’s higher equity buoyed by above historic norm sale prices.
Inflation and Interest Rates Impact on Economy
The Federal Reserve aggressively pushed the fed fund rate 10 consecutive times, but finally declined to continue in June 2023, citing cooling inflation. This move has provided some stability to capital markets, including lenders, with
mortgage rates stabilizing, albeit in the 6–7% range. While inflation is half
of what it was last summer, it still sits around double the Fed’s goal. As such, market experts anticipate at least one more hike this year. However, some believe cuts may actually be on the horizon as the impact of previous rate hikes have had sufficient time for goals to be met, resulting in that “soft landing” everyone is hoping for. A persistently strong labor market is helping to keep the United States out of recession territory, but high interest rates carry higher borrowing and operating costs for consumers and businesses. That leaves the economy in a somewhat holding pattern, with everyone waiting for some shift to move out of this uncomfortable equilibrium.
The Sun is Shining on Florida’s Future
Florida has always been an attractive place for people to live, but long-term efforts to diversify the economy and attract working-age residents are paying off. Florida topped the list for younger people looking to take their remote job to a place with amazing amenities and affordability. A deeper bench of tech, healthcare and information, and business services jobs has also attracted people who work on-site as well. No longer just for retirees, Florida continues to be a major player in attracting companies to relocate or expand here, citing a more diversified workforce to fill available jobs than before.
Florida’s future remains bright despite some obvious growing pains. Affordability is becoming more of an issue as people relocating from other states are tipping sales prices in a direction that gives long-term residents headaches. Dwindling the availability of land to create new housing will challenge Florida’s ability to build its way out of pricing pain.
Managing growth and success will continue to be Florida’s charge over the coming decades as the economy matures, similar to Silicon Valley’s experience over the last few decades.
*Information provided by Florida Realtors
Its been said: Real estate is the safest investment in the world.
You've probably heard it said, 'Real estate is the safest investment in the world.' But when it comes to dipping your toes into the investment property pool for the first time, it can feel like anything but safe.
So, let's break this down:
1) Start With the End in Mind: It's important to clarify what you want out of this investment. Are you looking for monthly cash flow or a long-term appreciation plan? Or both? Different types of properties will fit different goals, so being clear on your 'why' is crucial.
2) Understand Your Budget: This goes beyond knowing how much you can afford to spend on an investment property. You also need to consider the ongoing costs of owning and managing it, including taxes, maintenance, insurance, and potential vacancies.
3) Choose Your Property Type: Whether it's a single-family home, a duplex, or a commercial property, your choice will heavily depend on your budget and your investment goals. Research the average costs, rental rates, and market trends for each type in your desired area. I can help send you MLS listings IMMEDIATELY when they his the market.
4) Location, Location, Location: Remember, you're not just investing in a property, but also in a location. Look for areas with a strong rental market, promising future developments, and amenities that will attract tenants. Check out our Neighborhood Guides to get a feel for the area.
5) Build Your Team: Just like you wouldn't whip up a complex dish without the right kitchen tools, you shouldn't venture into real estate investment without the right team. This includes a trustworthy real estate agent, a reliable property manager, a knowledgeable lender, and an experienced lawyer.
There you have it—your recipe for success in your first real estate investment venture.
Questions about investing? Let's connect. My job is to take the guesswork out of this process for you.
Tampa Housing Predictions 2023 Second Half
Did you know that some experts are predicting mortgage rates could reach a whopping 8.75% in 2023!? Let's dive deeper into the forecast for the housing market in the second half of this rollercoaster of a year.
→ Mortgage Rate Predictions
We're currently seeing mortgage rates flirting with 7%. But some industry seers expect those figures to continue climbing, hitting averages of 8.75% and 8.25% for 30-year and 15-year loans respectively throughout 2023. But don't panic just yet! Others foresee a peak early on, followed by a gradual decrease to around 6.0% and 5.25%.
→ Impact on Housing Sales
Shaky mortgage rates can cause a domino effect on housing sales. The outlook? Nadia Evangelou from NAR predicts a drop across all scenarios - a minimum dip of 7% at best and a sharp plunge of over 15% at worst.
→ Trends in Home Prices
With all this turmoil, you might expect home prices to tumble. However, experts predict that overall prices are likely to remain steady, despite some minor reductions in the most inflated markets.
→ Housing Inventory Projections
The narrative of a housing shortage has been a headline story for years. Will 2023 write a different script? Some industry watchers anticipate a slight rise in housing inventory, while others predict the status quo will persist.
→ Buyer Versus Seller: Market Dynamics
Who will steal the show in the latter half of 2023: buyers or sellers? Predictions suggest a balanced market, with neither side holding the upper hand.
It's clear that 2023 is shaping up to be a blockbuster of a year in the housing market. Whether you're a buyer, a seller, or an interested observer, remember that I'm here to help decode these forecasts and guide you through these captivating times. Let's embark on this journey together!
(Statistics: bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/)
Tampa Real Estate: New Restaurants to Try in 2023
The Tampa Bay area is a foodie's paradise, and there are always new restaurants opening up. If you're looking for a new dining spot to try, here are a few of the most anticipated new restaurants opening in Tampa in 2023:
Lilac: This new Mediterranean restaurant from Chef John Fraser will be located in the Tampa EDITION hotel. The menu will feature a variety of vegetable-forward dishes, as well as seafood and meat options.
Azure: This new Greek restaurant will be located in the Water Street Tampa development. The menu will feature traditional Greek dishes, as well as a raw bar and a rooftop bar with stunning views of the city.
The Pearl: This new tavern and oyster room will be located in the Channel District. The menu will feature fresh seafood, craft cocktails, and live music.
Toastique: This new gourmet toast and juice bar will be located in the Water Street Tampa development. The menu will feature a variety of toasts, bowls, and juices made with fresh, local ingredients.
Kura Sushi: This new conveyor belt sushi restaurant will be located in the Westshore Plaza. The menu will feature a variety of sushi, sashimi, and other Japanese dishes.
These are just a few of the many new restaurants opening in Tampa in 2023. If you're looking for a new dining experience, be sure to check out one of these spots.
In addition to these new restaurants, there are also a number of established restaurants in Tampa that are worth trying. Here are a few of our favorites:
Cypress Creek Grill: This upscale steakhouse offers a wide variety of grilled meats and seafood.
The Refinery: This gastropub serves up creative takes on classic dishes, as well as a wide selection of craft beers.
The Capital Grille: This fine dining restaurant offers a sophisticated menu of American cuisine.
Ulele: This waterfront restaurant serves up traditional Florida cuisine with a modern twist.
Bern's Steak House: This legendary steakhouse has been serving up some of the best steaks in Tampa for over 50 years.
No matter what your taste, you're sure to find something to your liking in Tampa's vibrant restaurant scene. So what are you waiting for? Start planning your next meal out today!
Tampa Real Estate Market Forecast 2023
Tampa Real Estate Market Forecast 2023 remains a seller’s market with prices continuing due to low inventory.
The Tampa real estate market is expected to remain strong in 2023. Home prices are forecast to continue to appreciate, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. Inventory levels are expected to remain low, which will continue to drive up prices.
There are a number of factors that are contributing to the strength of the Tampa real estate market. The economy in the Tampa Bay area is strong, with low unemployment and a growing population. The region is also a popular tourist destination, which attracts buyers from all over the country.
Another factor that is driving up home prices in Tampa is the lack of inventory. The number of homes for sale in the area is significantly lower than the number of buyers. This is due to a number of factors, including the strong economy and the popularity of the region as a retirement destination.
As a result of these factors, home prices in Tampa are expected to continue to appreciate in 2023. However, the pace of appreciation is expected to slow down from the levels seen in recent years. This is due to the fact that inventory levels are expected to increase slightly in 2023.
Despite the expected slowdown in appreciation, the Tampa real estate market is still expected to be a seller's market in 2023. This means that buyers will need to be prepared to compete for homes and offer above asking price.
If you are thinking about buying a home in Tampa in 2023, it is important to start your search early. You should also be prepared to work with a top Tampa real estate agent who can help you find the right home for your needs and budget.
Here are some of the key factors to watch for in the Tampa real estate market in 2023:
Home prices: Home prices are forecast to continue to appreciate in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years.
Inventory levels: Inventory levels are expected to increase slightly in 2023, but they are still expected to be below the historical average.
Demand: Demand for homes in Tampa is expected to remain strong in 2023.
Interest rates: Interest rates are expected to remain low in 2023, which will help to keep home affordability in check.